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There are a number of folks that have undertaken an effort to apply “The Wisdom of the Crowd” to win the lottery. Thus far, some might say the results are inconclusive. The following information comes from Professor William’s blog. There are some interesting insights that could help us select winning numbers.
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The Wisdom of the Crowd
His relatively more recent venture into this world of apparent wisdom went down a rather singular avenue as he explained how a group of 24 people could predict the winning Lottery numbers with uncanny accuracy.
The idea in essence was that each of the 24 would make a guess about the number on each ball and the average of each of these guesses would converge on the next set of winning numbers.
Why not? After all, if the crowd can accurately guess the weight of an ox or the number of jelly beans in a jar, why not the numbers on the lottery balls? The simple answer, of course, is because the lottery balls are drawn randomly.
So what is likely to happen if you do get a group of friends around and ask each to guess the number that will appear on each of the balls drawn next Saturday? If you take the average of the guesses about each in turn, my best estimate is that you are likely to end up with a prediction for each ball that is about 30 or less.
Why so? Partly this is because people tend to pick birthdays but it’s also because the averaging of a large number of guesses is likely to produce a number somewhere nearer the mid-point of the set of numbers than the extremes.
If you do use these numbers and just happen to win, you’re likely to be sharing your winnings with a lot of other people who’ve chosen the same numbers as you.
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